Near the start for Ironbound Farm, cidermaker Cameron Stark learned a hard lesson about trusting distributors over their his data.
“Early on, we only listened to our distributor, with the thought that we are new to the industry and they have a better knowledge of the market,” Stark said about the Asbury, New Jersey cidery. “They would say, ‘This is hot, make lots.’ That would lead to a mismatch between what we were producing and what our audience wanted.”
One costly example still stands out.
“If we had looked at our sales data from the prior year, we would never have made 3,000 cases of a specialty cider — we had to destroy over 700 cases,” Stark said.
The misstep prompted a complete overhaul in how Ironbound approached inventory and production planning.
For both Ironbound and Utah’s Mountain West Hard Cider, the evolution of inventory and production planning has been about balancing informed data analysis with calculated flexibility — ensuring the right cider gets to market at the right time, without unnecessary waste.
Today, Stark and his team focus on historical sales trends rather than industry buzz.
“Now, we look at our overall growth, a particular cider’s sales rate, add a reasonable sales increase, then only make that amount,” he said.
New products are tested in the tasting room before scaling up, ensuring there is tangible customer demand before production ramps.
“We also have one or two lead ciders that are always available. All the specialty or seasonal stuff we make once a year,” Stark said. “We’d prefer to leave consumers wanting more even if that means leaving some money on the table.”
Mountain West head cidermaker Marcio Buffolo also emphasizes data-driven production decisions but adds a layer of flexibility to the process.
“The sales data shows the seasonality and the patterns of sales from different SKUs. That allows us to maximize tank time and produce fresh batches as we get closer to that cider season,” Buffolo said.
Even with careful planning, mismatches between production and demand occasionally occur.
“A few times, the expected demand has been below or above the production schedule,” he said. “When it is below, we try different approaches in marketing to push the product to achieve the goal. When the demand is higher, we usually try to keep one tank in a spare mode to produce the product quickly and avoid shortage.”
For both cideries, tracking patterns is key.
Buffolo explained that understanding customer purchasing habits helps determine which apple varieties and cider styles to prioritize each year.
“Seasonal offerings are very well established in which flavors usually are preferred. Year-over-year data shows us when is the best time to send the product to the market,” he said.
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Timing matters; launching a seasonal cider too early or too late can dull customer excitement and stunt sales.
Buffolo pointed to their annual wassail cider as an example of how tracking sales helped refine production.
“The product performed really well in the first year, but the sales fell short after the year end. So, next year, we produced a little less and did a flavor swap at the beginning of the year, and have been more successful in our seasonal cider,” he said.
To avoid overproduction, Mountain West monitors daily sales data and uses it to forecast needs months in advance. For underproduction, they rely on backup plans.
“If the product sales are performing better than expected, we try to keep one tank in a spare mode to avoid this from happening,” Buffolo said. “Also, our cans supplier has sleeves print
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